The key chart
Long term trends in US consumer credit ($bn) (Source: FRED; CMMP)
The key message
The US money sector sent mixed messages about the outlook for consumption and growth at the end of 2023.
The outstanding stock of consumer credit recorded a new “round number” of $5tr in November 2023, albeit it with a (nominal) rate of growth below its long term trend (see key chart).
Monthly flows ($bn) in US consumer credit (Source: FRED; CMMP)
CMMP Analysis has been following the recent slowdown in monthly flows of consumer credit with interest.
November 2023 saw a reversal of this trend, however. The monthly flow of consumer credit jumped to $24bn, from $6bn in October 2023 and $11bn in September 2023. November’s monthly flow also exceeded the pre-pandemic average flow of $15bn for the first time since May 2023 (see chart above).
The 3m MVA of monthly flows rose to $13bn in November 2023 from under $1bn in October 2023 but remained below its pre-pandemic average of $15bn.
So what?
It is dangerous to read too much into one month’s data release but for now, at least, the message from the money sector is that the “cracking US consumer” narrative is currently on hold….
Please note that the summary comments and charts above are abstracts from more detailed analysis that is available separately.