The key chart
The key message
UK GDP grew 4.8% YoY in 2Q21 as consumer spending rebounded following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions during the quarter. The message from the money sector, which has foreshadowed official data well, remains positive but with the risk of momentum slowing. The £150bn of “excess savings” are likely to return to consumption in a steady rather than dramatic fashion.
Spending on credit and debit cards, which has been rising since early January, accelerated further with the re-opening of non-essential retail stores on 12 April 2021. In relation to pre-COVID levels, the largest increases in spending since the latest relaxation have been on the “work-related” (31ppt) and “delayable” (30ppt) goods. In contrast, spending on “staples” has slowed (but remains above pre-COVID levels).
Spending has increased further so far in the 3Q21: social (11ppt); work-related (6ppt); delayable (2ppt) and staples (1ppt). However, it is below recent peaks in each category and below (delayable, social) or at (aggregate) pre-COVID levels.
Separately, the money sector is indicating that household uncertainty remains elevated as indicated by monthly flows of money holdings that remain 2x pre-COVID levels. On a positive note, this suggests that excess savings built up during the pandemic now exceed £150bn.
Spending on delayables is the best indicator of the extent to which excess savings are returning to the economy via sustained consumption. The evidence to date is that this is happening in a steady rather than dramatic fashion.
Where next – in charts
Please note that the summary comments and charts above are extracts from more detailed analysis that is available separately.