The key chart
The key message
UK households are delaying spending on so-called “delayable goods” such as clothing and furniture. This matters because this form of spending is a useful indicator of the extent to which the c. £150bn excess savings built up during the pandemic is returning to the UK economy via consumption in a sustained fashion.
Delayable purchases recovered strongly following the re-opening of non-essential stores (12 April) to reach 122% (19 April) and 112% (5 May) of pre-pandemic levels. The latest ONS data release indicates that they fell back to 86% of pre-pandemic levels in the week to 9 September 2021, however (see chart above).
While all forms of credit and debit card spending have recovered from their 2021 lows, only spending on staples and work-related purchases are above pre-pandemic levels (see chart below).
In short, households are spending more in returning to work but the wider message from faster-indicators supports a “slowing UK momentum” narrative.
Please note that the short summary comments and charts above are extracts from more detailed analysis that is available separately