“COVID-19 and the flow of financial funds in the UK”

The key chart

The key message

The OBR’s “Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2021” provides valuable insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the flow of funds between the different sectors of the economy.

The UK government issued £227bn gilts in the first three quarters of 2020 to finance the support given to HHs and NFCs (and increased it net liability position by £130bn).

The BoE purchased a similar quantity of gilts in the secondary market (via APF) and financed this through the issuance of reserves. These reserves form liquid assets for the rest of the financial sector, counterbalanced by additional deposits from HHs and NFCs. Note that the net asset/liability positions of the money sector (the BoE and FIs) remained broadly unchanged at this point.

HHs increased their deposits by £102bn and their net asset position increased by £111bn. This increase in HH savings was intermediated to the UK government via the money sector, meaning that UK HHs have been the most important source of additional lending during the pandemic.

In contrast, the net lending position of NFCs and the RoW remained broadly unchanged.

Understanding how these flows will be unwound in the post-COVID period is the key to determining the speed and duration of the recovery in the UK economy. My next post will examine the HH sector dynamics in more detail.

Recall that the financial sector balances approach reognises that any net borrowing by one sector must be accompanies by net lending from another sector(s). The table below illustrates this balance in practice during the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 and the UK flow of funds

The OBR’s “Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2021” provides valuable insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the flow or funds between the different sectors of the economy. The analysis compares the patterns of financial flows between the five key sectors in the economy – HHs, NFCs, FIs, government and the RoW – in the first three quarters of 2020 and the final three quarters of 2019.

Recall that the financial sector balances approach recognises that any net borrowing of one sector must be accompanied by net lending from another sector(s).

As highlighted in my previous post, the UK government has provided unprecedented support to HHs and NFCs during the COVID pandemic. According to the OBR, this was financed (in net terms) by issuance of £227bn in gilts in the first three quarters of 2020. This compares with £34bn issuance in the final three quarters of 2019. The net liabilities of the government increased by £130bn over the period.

A similar quantity of gilts (£231bn) was purchased on the secondary market by the BoE’s Asset Purchase Facilty (APF) as part of quantitative easing (QE). The BoE financed this purchase by issuing an equivalent amount of its own liabilities (reserves). As a result the Bank’s net asset/liability position was unchanged.

The reserves issued by the BoE constitute assets for the rest of the UK financial sector. The counterpart/balance to these reserves is mainly the additional deposits from HH and NFCs that arose from the government’s support measures. Note again, that the net lending position of the financial sector remained broadly unchanged at this point.

The rise in HH deposits has been a consistent message from the money sector in 2020. The OBR notes that HH deposits increased by £102bn in the first three quarters in 2020. These savings have been intermediated to the government via the financial sector and the BoE through the flows described above. The net assets of the HH sector increased by £111bn.

The NFC sector also increased its deposits by £123bn over the period, while increasing net loans and other liabilities by £109bn. In aggregate, the net lending of NFCs changed little as a result but this masks significant differences in the experience of firms in different sectors.

Foreign investors have played a limited role in the financing the increase in UK government borrowing over the period. The net lending positions changed little over the first nine months of 2020.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associate responses from the UK government led to significant changes in the flow of funds between the key economic agents. The composition of these flows changed for most sectors but the main changes in net assets and liabilities were recorded by the HH and government sectors.

UK HHs represent an important source of additional lending over this period, with the increase in their liquid savings being intermediated to the government via the money sector (financials and the BoE).

The OBR is forecasting a 4% increase in real GDP in 2021 from a fall of 9.9% in 2022, followed by growth of 7.3%, 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.7% in the next four years out to 2025 respectively. The pace and sustainability of these forecasts depend on how the financial flows described above are unwound. In the next post, I will examine the outlook for the HH and NFC sectors in more detail.

Please note that the summary comments and charts above are extracts from more detailed analysis that is available separately.