“Lousy LT investments, but…”

The key chart

“An ever-present feature of most people’s lives and a critical part of the economy” Bank of England, 2015

Happy New Year

A central theme in CMMP analysis is that the true value in analysing developments in the financial sector lies less in considering investments in developed market banks – they have been lousy LT investments – but more in understanding the wider implications of the relationship between the banking sector and the wider economy for corporate strategy, investment decisions and asset allocation.

To begin 2020, I am publishing a series of posts in which I develop a consistent “balance sheet framework” for understanding this core relationship and apply it to the UK economy. The choice of the UK is deliberate, reflecting both the relatively large size of the UK financial system and the relatively volatile nature of its relationship with the UK economy (see the key chart above).

This first post presents a simple mapping exercise for the UK economy and its financial system.

Summary

Financial assets represent the largest segment of the UK’s £42 trillion national balance sheet, accounting for 75% of total assets at the end of 2018. The UK’s “money sector”, in turn, accounts for 68% of financial assets (compared to 58% in the EA), highlighting the important role of the sector in terms of absolute size. Within the money sector, MFIs remain the dominant players, but “other FIs” are playing an increasingly important role in both the UK and EA economies.

A key distinguishing feature of the UK economy is the relative size (and hence potential impact) of the money sector and the volatile nature of its relationship with the wider economy. The money sector’s financial assets rose from 6x GDP in 2000 to 15x GDP in 2008 and remain 10x GDP currently (3Q19). The unsurprising conclusion here, is that the UK’s financial system is “an ever-present feature of most people’s lives and a critical part of the economy” (Bank of England, 2015).

In my next post, I will develop this analysis by considering the core services provided by finance institutions and how they produce a stock of contracts that can be represented by financial balance sheets that link different economic agents together over time.

Lousy LT investments, but…

At various stages in my career, I have run top-rated bank equity research teams. In the face of LT bank under-performance throughout this experience, I have been struck by (1) the enduring, positive bias from sell-side analysts and (2) the scale and expense of the sell-side and buy-side resources dedicated to individual bank stock-picking.

Over the past 15 years, UK banks have under-performed the FTSE 100 by 75%, US banks have under-performed the S&P 500 by 53% and EA banks have under-performed the SXXE by 58%. Yet, how many sell ratings have been published over this period?

In my view, the same (expensive) resources would be better applied to understanding the implications of the relationship between the banking sector (and even the wider economy and/or the impact of macro developments on banks’ future profitability and cash flows!). Returns here are likely to be more attractive, hence my focus at CMMP.

The UK’s national balance sheet

Financial assets represent the largest segment of the UK’s national balance sheet, accounting for 75% of total assets. At the end of 2018, the UK’s national balance sheet was £42 trillion, largely unchanged in terms of total size since 2016. Financial assets totaled £31 trillion (75% of the total) and non-financial assets – largely land and other fixed assets – totaled £11 trillion (25% of the total).

The share of financial assets rose in the build-up to the GFC to peak at 82% in 2008, but is currently similar to the level seen in 2000. The UK’s financial liabilities totaled £32 trillion at the end of 2018, resulting in a net worth of just over £10 trillion. As an aside, the 3% growth in the UK’s net worth in 2018 was the slowest rate of growth since 2012.

The role of the UK financial system

The financial system, comprising MFIs, other FIs and insurance companies and pension funds (ICPFs), accounts for 68% of the UK’s financial assets compared with 58% in the Euro area (EA). At the end 2018, the financial assets of the UK financial system totaled £21 trillion a 7% CAGR since 1995. Of course, as can be seen in the graph below, this growth occurred up to 2008 (15% GAGR between 1995 and 2008) when the system’s financial assets peaked at almost £24 trillion, 11% higher than at the end of 2018. At the 2008 high point, the financial system or “money sector” accounted for 78% of the UK’s financial assets compared with 58% in 2000.

Monetary financial institutions – the Central Bank, deposit taking FIs and money-market funds – represent the largest sub-sector within UK financial services. At the end of 3Q19, the assets of UK MFIs totaled £12.6 trillion or 53% of total money sector financial assets. The assets of other FIs and ICPFs were £6.3 trillion (27%) and £4.8 trillion (20%) respectively as shown in the diagram below which illustrates the financial assets and liabilities of the domestic sectors in the UK economy. I will be returning to the differences in financial net worth (financial assets minus financial liabilities) across the different economic sectors in subsequent posts.

The rise of “other FIs”

Other FIs are playing an increasing important role in both the UK and EA economies. This sub-sector comprises non-money market funds (investment trusts, unit trusts and other collective investment schemes whose investment fund shares or units are not close substitutes for deposits), other financial intermediaries (eg, security and derivative dealers, finance leasing companies, venture and development capital companies, and export and import financing companies), financial auxiliaries (insurance brokers, investment advisers, fund managers and payment institutions) and captive financial institutions (holding companies and SPVs) and money lenders.

UK other FIs have increased their share of the money sector’s financial assets from 19% in 2000 to 27% at the end of 2Q19. This has been at the expense of ICPFs who have seen their share fall from 32% to 20% over the same period. A similar, if more muted trend, has also occurred in the EA where the share of other FIs has risen from 25% of money sector financial assets in 2000 to 30% at the end of 2Q19. In this case, however, this has been at the expense of EA MFIs who have seen their share fall from 61% to 56% over the same period.

The UK’s key distinguishing feature

A key distinguishing feature of the UK economy is the relative size (and potential impact) of the money sector and the volatile nature of its relationship with the wider economy. In September 2000, the UK’s money sector’s financial assets were 6x larger than GDP. This compares with a multiple of 4x in the EA. By December 2008, the same ratio had risen to 15x GDP in the UK but only 6x in the EA. Since then, the UK’s ratio has fallen back to, a still very large, 10x GDP while the EA’s ratio has risen more steadily to 7x.

In contrast, the relationship between the size of the “real economy’s” financial assets and GDP has been more stable. In 2000, the UK real economy’s financial assets were 4x larger than GDP. At the end of 2008, this ratio was also 4x and is only 5x currently. In the EA, the same ratio rose from 4x in 2000 to 6x in 2008 before falling back to 5x currently.

In other words, the ratio of the size of real economy’s financial assets to GDP is much lower and more stable in both the UK and the EA. However, it is much larger for the money sector and, equally importantly, more volatile in the case of the UK.

Conclusion

The unsurprising conclusion of this first post, is that the UK’s financial system is “an ever-present feature of most people’s lives and a critical part of the economy” (Bank of England, 2015). In my next post, I will develop this analysis by considering the core services provided by finance institutions and how these services produce a stock of contracts that can be represented by financial balance sheets that illustrate how different economic agents are linked together over time.

Please note that the summary comments above are abstracts from more detailed analysis that is available separately.