The key chart
Monthly consumer credit flows as a multiple (x) of pre-pandemic average flows (Source: FRED; BoE; CMMP)
The key message
The messages from the US, UK and euro area (EA) money sectors are converging around a common theme – downside risks to household (HH) consumption and economic growth.
The consumer credit dynamics behind these messages remain very different, however – sharply slowing demand in the US, surprisingly resilient demand in the UK, and consistently subdued demand in the EA (see key chart above).
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) face delicate balancing acts between reducing inflation (their core mandates) and weaker growth. Higher interest rates are supposed to deter borrowing and hence reduce aggregate demand and inflation. At the same time, increased borrowing is one way that households (HHs) can offset the pressures of falling real incomes. How is this playing out so far, in 1Q23?
Demand for consumer credit remains slightly above pre-pandemic levels in both the US and the UK suggesting that risks towards more persistent inflation remain. The very rapid pace of adjustment in US consumer credit demand complicates matters, however, and suggests that Chair Powell may have a more challenging task here than Governor Bailey. In contrast, consistently subdued EA consumer credit demand suggest that the risks to the ECB’s balancing act lie more towards weaker growth/recession. An altogether different challenge for President Lagarde, the subject of my next post…
Clues from consumer credit III
Monthly consumer credit flows tell us a great deal about the relative strength of the US, UK and EA economies and the risks associated with growth. The immediate response of HHs in the US, UK and EA was consistent – they all repaid consumer credit. The subsequent responses were anything but consistent, however (for background see “Clues from consumer credit”, November 2022).
US dynamics
Trends in US monthly consumer credit flows ($bn) (Source: FRED; CMMP)
Between March 2022 and December 2022, monthly flows of US consumer credit were more than double their pre-pandemic average. Back in November 2022, I suggested that the risks to the US growth outlook lay in the sustainability of these flows in the face of rising borrowing costs. In the first two months of 2023, these flows slowed sharply to 1.6x and 1.1x pre-pandemic averages (see chart above). In short, demand for consumer credit is moderating sharply rather than collapsing, at least so far.
UK dynamics
Trends in UK monthly consumer credit flows (£bn) (Source: BoE; CMMP)
UK demand for consumer credit has been surprisingly resilient. Over the past twelve months, monthly flows have remained close to their pre-pandemic average level of £1.2bn. The 3m MVA of monthly flows was 1.1x the pre-pandemic average in both January and February 2023, up from 0.7x in October 2022 (see chart above).
EA dynamics
Trends in EA monthly consumer credit flows (EURbn) (Source: ECB; CMMP)
The theme in the EA has been one of consistently subdued demand for consumer credit. The 3m MVA flow fell to €1.1bn in February 2023, down from €1.2bn in January, only 0.3x the pre-pandemic average flow (see chart above). The key message in the EA has been that consumer credit flows have failed to recover to their pre-pandemic levels, in contrast to trends observed in both the US and the UK.
Conclusion
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) face delicate balancing acts between reducing inflation (their core mandates) and weaker growth. Higher interest rates are supposed to deter borrowing and hence reduce aggregate demand and inflation. At the same time, increased borrowing is one way that households (HHs) can offset the pressures of falling real incomes. How is this playing out in 1Q23?
Demand for consumer credit remains slightly above pre-pandemic levels in both the US and the UK suggesting that risks towards more persistent inflation remain. The very rapid pace of adjustment in US consumer credit demand complicates matters, however, and suggests that Chair Powell may have a more challenging task here than Governor Bailey. In contrast, consistently subdued EA consumer credit demand suggest that the risks to the ECB’s balancing act lie more towards weaker growth/recession. An altogether different challenge for President Lagarde…
Please note that the summary comments and charts above are abstracts from more detailed analysis that is available separately.