“Update required – Part I”

History rhymes – but this chart still needs refreshing

“The key chart”

Trends in Japanese, Spanish and Chinese private sector debt % GDP ratios (Source: BIS; CMMP)

The key message

I published this chart for the first time in 2017 to ask whether history was repeating itself in terms of private sector indebtedness – was China following in the footsteps of Japan and Spain?

It was also an opportunity to flag the rapid rise in household (HH) debt in China (see also, “Too much, too soon“), and to highlight the risks associated with rapid rates of growth in debt (see also, “Beyond the headlines“)

These trends and risks are understood better today (and the same chart has been reproduced many times by different people) – but the chart is in urgent need of an update. The reasons will be revealed later today when the BIS releases its 2Q22 update of global credit…